The Insane Clown Posse Enters the White House

The Dark Carnival has begun

It’s often a good exercise for pundits to assess their predictions after the time period that they were predicting has come to pass, in order to see what they got right and wrong, determine how they should update their understanding of the world based on the results, and take accountability for their mistakes. Since I made some bold predictions about the 2024 election, I figured that the inauguration of the president was a good occasion to hold myself accountable.

So, I would like to sincerely state that I am responsible for getting almost everything right! Sure, I may have gotten a few minor details wrong, such as predicting that candidates who didn’t even end up running would get more electoral votes than were actually on the table, but that can be chalked up to omnipresent uncertainty in the world that’s outside of my control. And as we all know, predictions should be assessed purely on the basis of whichever binary outcome is judged most likely - that’s why we can all agree that Nate Silver’s model is absolute garbage for assessing Kamala Harris’s chances of victory at 50.015%. How ridiculous! If her chances were higher than 50%, how come she lost?

So I would contend that I should be judged a genius for predicting that the Insane Clown Posse would win the presidential election. After seeing Trump’s Cabinet picks and hearing him discuss his “concepts of a plan” at the debate, does anyone doubt that this is what happened? Sure, I was wrong about which Insane Clown Posse, but that’s just a tomato-tomahto issue. There are even murmurs about a “President Elon Musk,” suggesting that I was right about the co-presidents thing, too.

So, if you need any political forecasting in the next four years, you know which blog to come to for 99% reliable predictions.