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Holy cow, this is quite the tour de force! Really beautifully written too. (Also I'm feeling pretty vindicated by it. Some of those markets were hella contentious.)

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Very nice!

Re: the non-standard case ('variant NNN'), I don't see why P(I given C_N) = 0 when both P(C_N given I) and P(I) are non-zero infinitesimals. But I read this section quickly and haven't followed Bartha and Hitchcock's construction, so I think I'm missing something.

Re: the countably additive case, I might mention that a 1989 letter from David Lewis to John Leslie (reprinted in Lewis's Philosophical Letters, vol. 2, pp. 481-2) gives a nice explanation of the trouble with the 1/2 (or 9/10: Lewis discusses the Shooting Room version) answer, where he makes the same connection with the two-envelope paradox.

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